Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or military database, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes consensus.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or military database, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes consensus. While the rules outline specific qualifying actions like direct gunfire or missile strikes, they exclude several forms of military friction, including warning shots, airspace incursions, missile splashdowns in territorial waters, and fire into uninhabited areas. In maritime encounters, distinguishing between intentional ramming that causes significant damage versus minor scrapes or accidental contact requires subjective judgment. Additionally, incidents must involve direct official military forces of both nations, meaning proxy skirmishes or unacknowledged cross-border strikes in third countries like Syria could create disputes over attribution.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military encounter occurs between the military forces of Israel and Turkey before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a military encounter occurs between Israeli and Turkish military forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying encounter involves the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire exchanges, direct military engagement, or intentional ship ramming that causes significant damage (like a hole in the hull) or sinking. Non-violent actions, warning shots, artillery into uninhabited areas, missile passes through airspace or into waters, and minor ship damage (scrapes, dents) do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. A consensus of credible reporting decides.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·