Trump out as President before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Participants should note that an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive resolution, even if the departure date is set for well into the future beyond the 2026 deadline.
Read the full assessment
Participants should note that an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive resolution, even if the departure date is set for well into the future beyond the 2026 deadline. There is slight tension between the opening clause covering cessation of office for any period of time and the later clause specifying that only permanent removal qualifies, though the text explicitly clarifies that temporary 25th Amendment incapacities do not count unless sustained by Congress. No single official authority is designated to confirm the outcome; instead, resolution relies on an adjudicator determining whether a consensus of credible media reporting exists.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the United States before 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline immediately triggers resolution, even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is permanently removed, or otherwise ceases to be President for any period by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date also immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. A sustained Section 4 Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation upheld by a two-thirds vote of both Houses of Congress counts for Yes. Temporary removals, such as Section 3 invocations or unsustained Section 4 invocations, and impeachment without removal do not count. The market resolves to No if he remains President throughout the period without such an event or announcement. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·