Will Trump resign before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market contains an important counter-intuitive condition: it resolves to Yes solely based on an announcement of resignation, meaning an actual departure from office is neither required nor evaluated.
Read the full assessment
This market contains an important counter-intuitive condition: it resolves to Yes solely based on an announcement of resignation, meaning an actual departure from office is neither required nor evaluated. Furthermore, if he is removed from office by other means or if announcing resignation becomes impossible, the market triggers an immediate No resolution rather than waiting for the end date. Resolution relies primarily on official federal government information alongside a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolver latitude in evaluating unofficial remarks or informal statements that might be characterized as an announcement.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump announces his resignation as President of the United States before the end of 2026. Unusually, resolution depends strictly on the announcement itself rather than whether an actual resignation takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether he actually resigns is disregarded. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline. The market resolves to No immediately if it becomes impossible for Trump to resign or announce his resignation, including if he is removed from office by other means. Resolution is determined primarily by official US federal government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the US federal government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·