Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether the leaders have an in-person encounter where both are present and interact before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether the leaders have an in-person encounter where both are present and interact before the end of 2026. What constitutes an interaction is not formally defined beyond in-person contact, meaning brief or incidental exchanges at multilateral events could require subjective interpretation. Furthermore, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official joint diplomatic communique or named governmental registry, leaving the determination of consensus to the resolver. The rules clarify that any meeting held in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory counts as Russia, and the market explicitly tracks the next meeting, meaning an intervening meeting elsewhere would resolve the outcome.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin before 2027 takes place in Turkey.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin have their next in-person interactive meeting in Turkey by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location or if no meeting occurs before 2027. Territory under de facto Russian control, such as Crimea, is classified as Russia for location purposes. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·