Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official register or specific named outlet, leaving room for subjective evaluation of what constitutes a meeting and whether an interaction occurred in person.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official register or specific named outlet, leaving room for subjective evaluation of what constitutes a meeting and whether an interaction occurred in person. Additionally, the rules include an important geographical exception: any meeting held in Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control, such as Crimea, is treated as taking place in Russia rather than Ukraine. Participants should also note the potential ambiguity around determining de facto control in contested front-line areas.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin occurs in Ukraine before 2027. Notably, any meeting held in Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control (such as Crimea) is classified as taking place in Russia rather than Ukraine.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin have an in-person meeting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person. Any meeting on Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control counts as being in Russia, not Ukraine. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location, or if no meeting takes place by the deadline. The market resolves to 'No meeting before 2027' if no encounter occurs before the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·