Will 240 or more House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives regarding recorded floor votes to adopt articles of impeachment.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives regarding recorded floor votes to adopt articles of impeachment. Specific exclusions are outlined, noting that procedural motions such as motions to table or refer do not qualify. If multiple votes occur on the first day, the highest count of 'yes' votes applies, and any subsequent voting days are ignored. The question specifies a threshold of 240 or more votes by December 31, 2026, and provides a clear fallback condition resolving to 'No vote' if no qualifying floor vote occurs by the deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether at least 240 U.S. House members vote to impeach Pete Hegseth during the first legislative day a floor vote occurs. It evaluates only the initial legislative day of floor voting and includes a distinct outcome if no qualifying vote takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 240 or more members of the US House of Representatives vote in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth during the first legislative day a floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs. It resolves to No if a floor vote occurs on that first legislative day but fewer than 240 members vote in favor. If multiple qualifying floor votes happen on that same first legislative day, resolution uses the vote with the highest number of votes in favor; votes on later legislative days are ignored. Only recorded votes of the full House on adopting an impeachment resolution or articles count; procedural votes do not count regardless of impact. The market resolves to "No vote" if no floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Clerk of the US House of Representatives official roll call records decides resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting as an alternative.
Resolution source
Official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·