U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines specific provision categories required for a qualifying bill, rather than counting any legislation touching artificial intelligence.
Read the full assessment
The market defines specific provision categories required for a qualifying bill, rather than counting any legislation touching artificial intelligence. While the categories provide examples such as parameter caps or human oversight requirements, interpreting whether complex statutory language in an omnibus bill or defense authorization meets one of these four criteria involves subjective categorization. The resolution criteria point primarily to official government legislative records like Congress.gov, but also allow a consensus of credible reporting. The deadline is clearly set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States enacts federal legislation containing specific artificial intelligence safety provisions before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a bill containing at least one qualifying AI safety provision is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying provisions include prohibitions on the creation or release of specific AI models, training restrictions such as data access limits or maximum parameter caps, usage restrictions in certain applications, or human-in-the-loop oversight requirements. The market resolves to No if no such bill is signed into law by the deadline. The resolution will be determined using official U.S. federal government sources, such as Congress.gov, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official U.S. federal government sources (e.g., Congress.gov) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·