China coup attempt before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution depends on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body, leaving the decider to evaluate media narratives.
Read the full assessment
Resolution depends on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body, leaving the decider to evaluate media narratives. Because information regarding internal Chinese politics is heavily restricted, distinguishing between an actual coup attempt, an elite factional purge, and mere rumors presents major interpretative challenges. The rules specify that foiled plots or arrests without an active execution phase do not qualify, and state claims of a thwarted plot require independent media to explicitly characterize it as an attempted coup. Participants should also note the qualifying window begins on November 11, 2025, rather than covering all historical events prior to 2027.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in China within the specified window ending before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt requires a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, general unrest, and foiled plots or arrests without any attempted execution do not qualify. Government claims of foiled plots only count if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·