Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the resolution relies on final 3-day domestic opening weekend box office figures, referencing specific tables on The Numbers with Box Office Mojo as a clear fallback.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the resolution relies on final 3-day domestic opening weekend box office figures, referencing specific tables on The Numbers with Box Office Mojo as a clear fallback. The terms explicitly clarify that only standard Friday-to-Sunday figures count regardless of extended holiday weekends, provide a specific tie-breaker mechanism using alphabetical order, and define a clear hard deadline of January 31, 2027, with procedures for handling missing reports. The decider has minimal discretion and the mechanics closely match standard box office tracking.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) 3-day opening weekend figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on that movie's The Numbers page, accessible via https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekend" figure for its first 3-day weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic 3-day opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend, and regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all 2026 movies, using alphabetical order as a tiebreaker.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves 1st place in domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all 2026 films, after applying alphabetical order to break any ties. It resolves to No as soon as finalized figures show the movie cannot finish in 1st place, or if another movie holds 1st place. Only standard 3-day Friday–Sunday figures are considered, regardless of extended holiday weekends. Resolution is determined primarily using the opening weekend figure on each movie's The Numbers page, with Box Office Mojo serving as the backup source. If final figures are missing by January 31, 2027, available figures at that time will be used, and films with no reported figures will be excluded.
Resolution source
The Numbers (with Box Office Mojo as fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·