Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly specified and rely on deterministic box office tracking data.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly specified and rely on deterministic box office tracking data. The rules name primary and secondary official industry aggregators (The Numbers, with Box Office Mojo as a fallback) and specifically define how to extract the 3-day opening weekend figure. A clear tiebreaker based on alphabetical order is included, and exact fallback deadlines and mechanics are detailed for handling missing figures by January 31, 2027. There is minimal subjectivity or discretion involved in evaluating the final outcome.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) 3-day opening weekend figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on that movie's The Numbers page, accessible via https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekend" figure for its first 3-day weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic 3-day opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend, and regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dune: Messiah achieves the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all 2026 movie releases, using strict 3-day figures regardless of longer holiday weekends.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Dune: Messiah if it ranks 1st in domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all 2026 movies. It resolves No if another movie finishes in 1st place, or as soon as finalized figures confirm Dune: Messiah cannot win 1st place. Only standard 3-day opening figures (Friday through Sunday) count. Ties are broken alphabetically by movie title. Movies lacking any reported figure across both sources are disregarded. Figures are taken from The Numbers, or Box Office Mojo if The Numbers lacks final data by the resolution deadline.
Resolution source
The Numbers, with Box Office Mojo as a fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·