Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official winner of the next French presidential election, accounting for both standard schedules and potential early snap elections, as well as two-round runoff mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official winner of the next French presidential election, accounting for both standard schedules and potential early snap elections, as well as two-round runoff mechanics. Outcomes rely on credible reporting with a clear fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior. The only specific contingency is a generous timeout deadline of December 31, 2027, which resolves the market to Other if results remain unresolved by that date.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Élisabeth Borne will win the next French presidential election, even if it is held earlier than scheduled.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Élisabeth Borne wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
French Ministry of the Interior or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·