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PolymarketEvent46 live of 46 outcomes

Next French Presidential Election

46 live outcomes · highest priced: Marine Le Pen at 46% · first close Apr 19, 2027 · $173.8M total volume

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About this event

This event covers the outcome of the next French presidential election, expected around April 2027 or held earlier. Markets track individual candidates and resolve based on which contender wins the presidency, including any potential second-round runoff.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of one market per candidate. Because the election selects a single winner of the French presidency, at most one candidate's market can resolve Yes, while all other candidate markets resolve No.

How it resolves

A candidate's market resolves Yes if they win the next French presidential election, whether in the first round (securing over 50% of the vote) or in a second-round runoff. It resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results from the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive source if ambiguity arises. If election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.

Key dates

  • Expected election period: — The election is expected to take place around April 2027, though markets apply if held earlier.
  • Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET; if results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or official results reported by the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Outcomes for Next French Presidential Election
OutcomePrice24hGotcha riskTradabilityCloses
Marine Le Pen46%±0LowHigh
David Lisnard16%▲ 1LowHigh
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%±0LowHigh
Christine Lagarde7%±0LowHigh
Édouard Philippe6%▼ 2LowHigh
Raphaël Glucksmann2%±0LowHigh
Jordan Bardella2%±0LowHigh
Teddy Riner2%±0LowHigh
François Hollande2%±0LowHigh
Dominique de Villepin2%±0LowHigh
Bruno Retailleau<1%±0LowHigh
Éric Zemmour<1%±0LowHigh
Gabriel Attal<1%±0LowHigh
Sébastien Lecornu<1%±0LowHigh
François Baroin<1%±0LowHigh
Xavier Bertrand<1%±0LowHigh
Laurent Wauquiez<1%±0LowLow
François Ruffin<1%±0LowLow
Marine Tondelier<1%±0LowLow
Fabien Roussel<1%±0LowLow
Olivier Faure<1%±0LowLow
Ségolène Royal<1%±0LowLow
François Asselineau<1%±0LowLow
Clémentine Autain<1%±0LowLow
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%±0LowLow
Michel Barnier<1%±0LowLow
Valérie Pécresse<1%±0LowLow
François Bayrou<1%±0LowLow
Élisabeth Borne<1%±0LowLow
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%±0LowLow
Jean Castex<1%±0LowLow
Gérald Darmanin<1%±0LowLow
Carole Delga<1%±0LowLow
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%±0LowLow
Manuel Bompard<1%±0LowLow
Mathilde Panot<1%±0LowLow
Sarah Knafo<1%±0LowLow
Juan Branco<1%±0LowLow
Clémence Guetté<1%±0LowLow
Karim Bouamrane<1%±0LowLow
Lucie Castets<1%±0LowLow
Yannick Jadot<1%±0LowLow
Marion Maréchal<1%±0LowLow
Natacha Polony<1%±0LowLow
Anasse Kazib<1%±0LowLow
Sylvain Durif<1%±0LowLow

Highest-priced outcome

Marine Le Pen · 7 daysRange 45–47%