Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves cleanly on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, including an early election if called.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves cleanly on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, including an early election if called. The resolution rules account for France's two-round voting system and set an absolute cutoff date of December 31, 2027. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically designates the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior as the deciding authority if any ambiguity arises.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Yaël Braun-Pivet will win the next French presidential election. The market applies whether the election happens at its scheduled April 2027 time or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Yaël Braun-Pivet wins the election outright in the first round or wins the second-round runoff. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior, if any ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior used if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·