Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, accounting for both regular and early snap elections as well as potential runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, accounting for both regular and early snap elections as well as potential runoff rounds. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous. A clear backstop date at the end of 2027 provides a definitive timeout mechanism if certification is severely delayed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Sébastien Lecornu will win the next French presidential election. The market covers the next presidential election regardless of whether it occurs on its expected April 2027 schedule or takes place earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sébastien Lecornu wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or a subsequent runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, the outcome is decided solely by the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Resolution source
French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·