Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the winning condition as the specified candidate winning the next French presidential election, accommodating both the scheduled 2027 timeline and any early election, as well as a second-round runoff.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the winning condition as the specified candidate winning the next French presidential election, accommodating both the scheduled 2027 timeline and any early election, as well as a second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of reporting with a designated official authority, the French Ministry of the Interior, specified to resolve any ambiguity. A timeout clause allows ample time through the end of 2027 before resolving to an alternative outcome if results remain uncertified.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Yannick Jadot will win the next French presidential election, scheduled for 2027 or held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yannick Jadot wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·