Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules contain a significant clause that differs from a simple reading of the question: any formal announcement of resignation or removal made prior to December 31, 2026 triggers an immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of when that departure is scheduled to take effect.
Read the full assessment
The rules contain a significant clause that differs from a simple reading of the question: any formal announcement of resignation or removal made prior to December 31, 2026 triggers an immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of when that departure is scheduled to take effect. If an announcement is made with a future effective date, the market will resolve before the actual vacancy occurs. Resolution is determined by official communications from the senator or the U.S. government, with secondary reliance permitted on a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Fetterman ceases to be a U.S. Senator representing Pennsylvania by December 31, 2026. A notable feature is that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). The market also resolves immediately to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·