Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a specific, authoritative source: the official Federal Reserve website for FOMC rate decisions.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a specific, authoritative source: the official Federal Reserve website for FOMC rate decisions. The threshold and terms are clearly defined, including both scheduled and emergency rate decisions. Early resolution upon reaching the target rate is explicitly documented, and the ultimate deadline is unambiguous.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper or lower bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate reaches 5.0% or higher before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 5.0% or higher at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings are included. The market resolves to No if the rate bounds do not reach this level by the deadline. The market may resolve immediately once relevant data showing the reached level is published. Resolution is decided using data from the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·