Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official Federal Reserve data, but there is a slight contradiction between the question title and the underlying rules.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official Federal Reserve data, but there is a slight contradiction between the question title and the underlying rules. The question specifically asks if the upper bound will reach 4.5% or higher, whereas the detailed rules state that the market will resolve to Yes if the lower or the upper bound reaches the specified level. Because the target federal funds rate is a range where the upper bound is higher than the lower bound, achieving a lower bound of 4.5% requires an even higher target range than just the upper bound reaching 4.5%, meaning the rule expansion could create minor confusion even though both criteria point to standard official FOMC target rate decisions. Early resolution is permitted as soon as official data publishes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate upper bound reaches 4.5% or higher before 2027. Note that the rules text broadly states the market checks if either the lower or upper bound reaches the specified level.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 4.5% or higher at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate hikes and cuts made outside of regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if the rate does not reach this level by the deadline. The market may resolve immediately once relevant data is published. The Federal Reserve's official open market operations webpage is the deciding source.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·