Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market contains a significant definitional twist that diverges from common understanding: a country is considered to have withdrawn as soon as it officially initiates withdrawal or formally notifies the European Council (such as triggering Article 50), regardless of whether the actual departure concludes within the timeframe.
Read the full assessment
The market contains a significant definitional twist that diverges from common understanding: a country is considered to have withdrawn as soon as it officially initiates withdrawal or formally notifies the European Council (such as triggering Article 50), regardless of whether the actual departure concludes within the timeframe. Resolution primarily relies on official European Union announcements, but allows secondary fallback to a consensus of credible reporting. Participants should note that formal notification alone triggers a positive resolution, even if the country remains an active member throughout 2026.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether any member state of the European Union withdraws from the bloc before 2027. Notably, officially initiating withdrawal or formally notifying the European Council counts as withdrawal, even if the process is not finalized within the timeframe.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any EU member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A country counts as having withdrawn once it officially initiates withdrawal or formally notifies the European Council of its intention to withdraw, even if the final departure occurs after the market window. The market resolves to No if no member state takes this official action by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by official information from the European Union and its member states, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the European Union and EU member states, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·