Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide precise mathematical definitions, exact comparison timestamps, and specific URLs for each of the three assets being compared (Bitcoin on Binance, Gold continuous contracts on MarketWatch, and the S&P 500 index on Yahoo Finance).
Read the full assessment
The rules provide precise mathematical definitions, exact comparison timestamps, and specific URLs for each of the three assets being compared (Bitcoin on Binance, Gold continuous contracts on MarketWatch, and the S&P 500 index on Yahoo Finance). Resolution is purely formulaic with no decider discretion. Clear edge-case rules are defined for shortened sessions, missing data, and exact ties, making the outcome objective and predictable once the 2026 trading year concludes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −1.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gold achieves the highest percentage price increase during 2026 compared to Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Ties are resolved alphabetically by asset name.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gold has the highest percentage price gain during 2026 among Gold, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500, or if it ties for the best performance and comes first alphabetically among the tied assets. The market resolves No if Bitcoin or the S&P 500 achieves a higher percentage return, or wins an alphabetical tiebreak. Gold is measured via MarketWatch GC00 closing prices from the last trading day of 2025 to the last trading day of 2026. Bitcoin is measured via Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes from January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The S&P 500 is measured via Yahoo Finance ^SPX closing prices from the last trading day of 2025 to the last trading day of 2026. Calculations rely strictly on price returns rather than total returns.
Resolution source
Binance, MarketWatch, and Yahoo Finance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·