French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
1 live outcome · highest priced: Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 30% · first close Apr 18, 2027 · $50K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which candidate will finish in third place in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Each market measures whether a specific candidate wins the third-most valid votes in that round.
How the outcomes relate
Markets are structured with one proposition per candidate. Because resolution selects the single candidate who occupies the third-highest finishing position after vote ranking and tie-breaking, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified candidate receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of the election. Candidates are ranked primarily by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of their listed full names. If the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election first round: — Scheduled date for the first round of the presidential election
- Definitive result deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to Other if results remain unknown
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior (interieur.gouv.fr) in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 30% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Édouard Philippe | 24% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Marine Le Pen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| David Lisnard | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| François Hollande | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Gabriel Attal | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Bruno Retailleau | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sarah Knafo | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Dominique de Villepin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Christine Lagarde | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Éric Zemmour | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Jordan Bardella | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sébastien Lecornu | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| François Ruffin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marine Tondelier | — | — | Not rated | — |