Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define that resolution depends on which candidate finishes with the third-highest valid vote count in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define that resolution depends on which candidate finishes with the third-highest valid vote count in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. An explicit tie-breaking procedure using the alphabetical order of listed candidate names is provided. Resolution primarily references a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop date of December 31, 2027 is set, resolving to 'Other' if definitive results are unavailable by then, which gives ample time after the April 2027 election.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
24%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Édouard Philippe finishes in third place by valid vote count in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Ties are broken alphabetically by full name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Édouard Philippe receives the third-most valid votes in the first round. Candidates are ranked primarily by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of their listed full names. The market resolves to No if another candidate occupies the third-highest finishing position after ranking. The market resolves to Other if the definitive election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·