2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: A reader looking only at the question might assume any cross-border strike or clash would end the ceasefire, but the rules impose narrow definitions and several major carve-outs.
A reader looking only at the question might assume any cross-border strike or clash would end the ceasefire, but the rules impose narrow definitions and several major carve-outs. Intercepted munitions and damage caused solely by falling debris do not count as qualifying strikes, nor do rocket artillery, MLRS, ground incursions, cyber operations, or short-range loitering munitions. Strikes must directly impact terrestrial territory under de facto control, excluding maritime areas and airspace. Resolution relies on judging a consensus between official military statements and credible media reporting, including a three-day observation window to reconcile conflicting reports near the deadline.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
81%
chance▼ −5 pts · 24h
The market fell from 85% to 74%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 22:50 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market measures whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through November 30. It relies on a specific technical definition of a qualifying military action, excluding intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, and naval or artillery fire.
The market resolves to Yes if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through November 30 at 11:59 PM IRST. The market resolves to No if either country initiates a qualifying military action against the other between market creation and November 30 at 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action is defined as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of the other country. Excluded from qualifying actions are intercepted or destroyed munitions, falling debris or wreckage, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, rocket artillery, and short-range or FPV drones. Resolution is determined based on official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran, as well as credible reporting.
Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·