Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

This event tracks whether Pedro Sánchez will leave his role as Prime Minister of Spain by specific future dates. Individual markets measure whether he ceases to hold office, resigns, or is removed prior to each designated target deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a series of timeline milestones. Because each market tests whether Pedro Sánchez leaves office by a given date, an exit occurring before an earlier deadline would also mean he is out before subsequent deadlines, allowing multiple markets to resolve Yes. If he remains in office past all dates, all markets resolve No.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties also qualifies as Yes. The rules for the January 15, 2027 market explicitly note that continuing in an acting or caretaker capacity does not count as a cessation of office. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.

Key dates

• December 31, 2026 deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — Target date (ET) for the December 31, 2026 market resolution.
• January 15, 2027 deadline: Jan 15, 2027 — Target date (ET) for the January 15, 2027 market resolution.
• January 31, 2027 outcome: Jan 31, 2027 — Target date for the January 31, 2027 live outcome.

Resolution source

Official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 23 Oct 2026, 00:32 UTC