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GeopoliticsCloses · in 79 days$34K volumePart of: Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...? →

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez leaves office before January 31, 2027, but participants should note specific trigger clauses.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez leaves office before January 31, 2027, but participants should note specific trigger clauses. Notably, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate early Yes resolution even if the effective date occurs after the market window. Serving in an acting or caretaker capacity explicitly does not count as leaving office. Furthermore, being detained or otherwise permanently prevented from performing official duties triggers a Yes outcome. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from Sánchez or the Spanish government, but falls back on a consensus of credible reporting, introducing some decider judgment if circumstances are contested.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

80%

chance

▲ +1.5 pts · 24h

Yes80¢
No20¢
January 31, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 60.5 H 90.0 L 57.5 C 80.0+19.5 (+32.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 21:10 UTC

The price rose from 78% to 88%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 80 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 21:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pedro Sánchez continuing as Prime Minister in an acting or caretaker capacity will not be considered a cessation of office. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Pedro Sánchez leaves the office of Prime Minister of Spain by January 31, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the departure takes effect later, while acting or caretaker service does not count as leaving office.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period between market creation and January 31, 2027 (ET). It also resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect, or if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. Continuing in an acting or caretaker capacity does not count as a cessation of office. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Pedro Sánchez and the Spanish government, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·