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GeopoliticsCloses · in 63 days$46.1K volumePart of: Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...? →

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market includes an early resolution trigger: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the January 15, 2027 deadline.

Read the full assessment

This market includes an early resolution trigger: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the January 15, 2027 deadline. Caretaker or acting roles do not count as leaving office. Determination relies on Spanish government statements or a broader consensus of credible media reporting, leaving some discretion to the resolver when interpreting reports of detention, effective removal, or incapacity.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
High

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

46%

chance

▲ +6.5 pts · 24h

Yes46¢
No54¢
January 15, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 46.5 H 67.0 L 39.5 C 46.0−0.5 (−1.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −10 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 14:25 UTC

The odds of Pedro Sánchez being out as PM of Spain fell from 51% to 41%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, 95% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 65 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pedro Sánchez continuing as Prime Minister in an acting or caretaker capacity will not be considered a cessation of office. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Pedro Sánchez leaves his role as Prime Minister of Spain by January 15, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if it takes effect later.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period between creation and the specified date (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of its effective date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties also counts as Yes. Serving in an acting or caretaker capacity does not count as a cessation of office. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Pedro Sánchez and the Spanish government, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·