US imports Russian diesel by...?

This event tracks whether the United States imports Russian-origin diesel fuel by specific calendar deadlines following an agreement announced on October 9, 2026. Each market measures whether physical delivery occurs before a specified cutoff date and time.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a series of timeline milestones. Because each market evaluates whether an import occurs by a specific date, an early import will satisfy multiple subsequent deadlines; thus, more than one market in this event can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Russian-production-origin diesel fuel is physically delivered to a US port or terrestrial territory for commercial or government use between market creation and the specified deadline (e.g., October 31, 2026, or November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, it resolves to No. The import must be reported as made under the October 9, 2026 agreement or authorized under General License 135 (or successor arrangements/authorizations). Fuel carried as a vessel's own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or in transit does not qualify. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• Announcement date: Oct 9, 2026 — Agreement announced and General License 135 issued
• October deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET
• November deadline: Nov 30, 2026 — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET
• General License 135 expiration: Apr 7, 2027 — Authorization period end date stated in background rules

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 11 Nov 2026, 00:29 UTC