US imports Russian diesel by November 15?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether Russian-origin diesel fuel is physically delivered to a US port or territory for domestic use by November 15, 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether Russian-origin diesel fuel is physically delivered to a US port or territory for domestic use by November 15, 2026. The rules clearly exclude vessel bunkering fuel, transit shipments, and bonded re-exports. However, resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official customs or port manifest database, requiring the decider to exercise judgment regarding what media accounts report about the origin, delivery, and legal authorization of any qualifying shipments.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.8 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States by November 15, 2026. Resolution requires the import to be physically delivered for domestic use and authorized under specific bilateral agreements or general licenses.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying imports must be physically delivered to a US port or terrestrial territory for commercial or government use within the US. The delivery must also be reported as made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or a successor arrangement) or authorized under General License 135 (or a successor authorization). Fuel carried as a vessel's own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or in transit through the US does not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·