US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official customs registry, trade data release, or named government database.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official customs registry, trade data release, or named government database. While the rules specifically exclude transit cargo, bonded fuel for re-export, and a vessel's own fuel, verifying whether an arrival constitutes physical delivery for commercial or government use under the specific bilateral agreement or general license leaves significant interpretive discretion to the resolution decider.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▼ −2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States by November 30, 2026, following the agreement announced on October 9, 2026, or under US Treasury General License 135.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russian-origin diesel fuel is physically delivered to a US port or terrestrial territory for commercial or government use within the United States between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the import must be reported as made under the October 9, 2026 agreement (or successor arrangement) or authorized under General License 135 (or successor authorization). Diesel carried as a vessel's own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or merely transiting through the US does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying import occurs within the timeframe. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·