Will Russia invade another country by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2027 at 18% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $771.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Russia will commence a military offensive against another sovereign UN member state (excluding Ukraine) by specified year-end deadlines.
How the outcomes relate
The outcomes represent different deadline targets. The supplied rules for both the 2026 and 2027 markets list the exact same condition and deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), meaning both could resolve Yes if the specified criteria are met.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET (as stated in the rules for both markets). Otherwise, it resolves to No. Land de facto controlled by any UN member state as of market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline stated in rules: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 18% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | ±0 | Med | High |