Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
High4 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: There is a major discrepancy between the question title, which specifies a deadline of December 31, 2027, and the resolution text, which sets the cutoff a full year earlier on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
There is a major discrepancy between the question title, which specifies a deadline of December 31, 2027, and the resolution text, which sets the cutoff a full year earlier on December 31, 2026. Anyone relying solely on the title could be surprised by an early negative resolution. Additionally, determining whether a military action constitutes an offensive specifically intended to establish control requires interpreting tactical intent rather than relying on an objective declaration. Resolution also relies on an undefined consensus of credible reporting rather than an official institutional source, leaving significant discretion to the market resolver to judge both the scope of operations and reporting consensus.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- High
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
18%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will launch a military offensive against any UN member state other than Ukraine. A notable discrepancy exists between the title (mentioning December 31, 2027) and the rules text (specifying December 31, 2026).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, excluding Ukraine, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by any UN member state as of market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such offensive commences by the specified deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·