Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining whether military actions constitute an offensive intended to establish control over sovereign territory, which leaves room for dispute in the event of cross-border skirmishes, hybrid operations, or limited strikes where intent is contested.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining whether military actions constitute an offensive intended to establish control over sovereign territory, which leaves room for dispute in the event of cross-border skirmishes, hybrid operations, or limited strikes where intent is contested. Additionally, no specific official body or index is designated to make the determination, so the market resolves based on subjective evaluation of what constitutes a consensus among credible reporting outlets. The rules clearly exclude Ukraine and establish a baseline for disputed territories using de facto control at market creation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will launch a military offensive to gain control of territory in any UN member state other than Ukraine in 2026. Territory is defined based on de facto control as of market creation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by any UN member state at the time of market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·