Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
1 live outcome · highest priced: December 31, 2026 at 4% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $1.2M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether the Doge-1 Lunar Mission will launch by various target dates. Each market measures whether the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad on or before a specified deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates. Because each market checks whether the launch occurs by a specific date, a launch occurring by an earlier deadline will satisfy both that deadline and any later deadline markets, allowing multiple markets to resolve Yes. If a launch occurs after an earlier deadline but before a later one, the earlier market resolves No while the later market resolves Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Resolution is corroborated using official video provided by SpaceX, supplemented by secondary video feeds and written reports if necessary. Any anomalies occurring after the launch, such as an explosion, or any name changes of the satellite will not affect the outcome.
Key dates
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the 2026 launch market.
- June 30, 2027 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the mid-2027 launch market.
Resolution source
Official video provided by SpaceX, secondary video feeds, and/or written reports
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| December 31, 2027 | 28% | ▲ 2 | Low | Low | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | — |