Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and straightforward criteria for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and straightforward criteria for resolution. The market resolves to Yes if the Doge-1 satellite launches from its pad by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, verified through official SpaceX video streams or secondary reporting. The rules explicitly clarify that any post-launch anomalies or satellite renaming do not negate a launch, eliminating potential ambiguity around mission success versus launch execution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite launches by December 31, 2026. Any anomalies occurring after launch, or name changes of the satellite, are disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Subsequent anomalies after the launch, such as an explosion, do not affect this outcome, nor do satellite name changes. The market resolves to No if this launch does not occur by the deadline. The outcome will be corroborated using official video from SpaceX, supplemented by secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
Resolution source
Official video provided by SpaceX, secondary video feeds, and written reports
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·