Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market specifies an exact timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) and defines leadership strictly as officially holding the role of head of state.
Read the full assessment
The market specifies an exact timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) and defines leadership strictly as officially holding the role of head of state. It establishes a clear hierarchy of sources: official information from the UN-recognized government first, followed by a direct link to the United Nations Protocol list of heads of state, with general reporting used only if those sources are unclear. The rules also include detailed tie-breaking mechanics and precise exclusions for interim or unconfirmed roles, minimizing ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
90%
chance▼ −1.65 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Individuals merely nominated, serving with an effective date after the target date, expired/resigned, or serving in an unofficial capacity do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual officially holds the position, or if no individual holds the position (resolving to "No Head of State"). If multiple individuals are listed, the one with primary status or who first assumed office resolves the market. Resolution is decided primarily by official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with United Nations protocol listings and credible reporting consensus used as fallbacks.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·