Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a precise evaluation timestamp of December 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET and clearly define what counts as officially holding the role of head of state.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a precise evaluation timestamp of December 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET and clearly define what counts as officially holding the role of head of state. A clear source hierarchy is established: official statements from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela serve as the primary source, backed by the official United Nations protocol directory as a concrete fallback. Consensus of credible reporting is only invoked if the official and UN sources remain ambiguous. Tie-breaking criteria for contested claims to the presidency are explicitly addressed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Edmundo González officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Edmundo González officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, designated with a future effective date, serving unofficially, or whose terms expired or ended beforehand do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual officially holds the position, or to "No Head of State" if no individual holds the role. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earlier assumption of office breaks the tie. Resolution is decided using official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with United Nations listings and a consensus of credible reporting used as fallbacks if the government does not clearly identify the head of state.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·