Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes holding the position, anchoring the outcome to the official head of state as recognized by the UN-recognized government of Venezuela at a specific timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes holding the position, anchoring the outcome to the official head of state as recognized by the UN-recognized government of Venezuela at a specific timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). A precise hierarchical source order is established, pointing directly to official government records, the United Nations protocol list, and finally reporting consensus if needed. Explicit criteria detail exclusions, tie-breakers for multiple claimants, and provisions for an empty seat, leaving minimal room for unexpected interpretations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Diosdado Cabello Rondón officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the specific cutoff time of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Diosdado Cabello Rondón is formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela, or confirmed as such by official government information, on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. Unofficial roles, nominees whose appointments are not yet effective, successors, and those who resigned or were terminated before the deadline do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the position or if no individual holds the position. If multiple leaders are listed, the individual with primary status or who first assumed office resolves. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela decides, with UN protocol listings and credible reporting consensus acting as fallbacks.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the UN, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·