Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the upper bound of the target federal funds range established by the Federal Open Market Committee following its December 2026 meeting.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the upper bound of the target federal funds range established by the Federal Open Market Committee following its December 2026 meeting. An official Federal Reserve URL is provided as the resolution source, leaving no room for subjective interpretation. A specific fallback date of December 31, 2026, handles potential delays in the meeting statement, and clear mathematical rounding instructions are defined in the event of an unconventional rate range.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 2.25% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, using standard rounding to the nearest 25 basis points with ties rounded away from zero.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is 2.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves No if the upper bound is any other value. Upper bound values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with values falling exactly halfway rounded away from zero. The market resolves immediately after the FOMC December meeting statement is issued. If no decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the prevailing upper bound at that time. Resolution is determined by official information from the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·