Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly specified and rely directly on official statements and data published by the Federal Reserve.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly specified and rely directly on official statements and data published by the Federal Reserve. The rules clearly define how the metric is calculated, specifying that the upper bound of the target range will be used with an explicit rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if directly between intervals). Timing is well-defined, resolving directly after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement is released, with a clear fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if no statement is issued.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 3.25% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, using standard rounding to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if tied).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly halfway), equals 3.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves to No if the rounded upper bound is any other value. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves according to the upper bound in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve serves as the primary resolution source.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·