Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has clear and objective resolution criteria based directly on official statements from the Federal Reserve.
Read the full assessment
This market has clear and objective resolution criteria based directly on official statements from the Federal Reserve. The metric is explicitly defined as the upper bound of the target range, with a specific rounding rule provided for edge cases. Resolution occurs promptly following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with a definitive fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 3.5% following the FOMC meeting in December 2026. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is 3.5% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves No if the upper bound is any other value. For resolution, the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, and rounded away from zero if it falls exactly between two options. Resolution may occur immediately after the FOMC December meeting statement is issued. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the rate in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·