Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on an unambiguous, official metric published directly by the Federal Reserve following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on an unambiguous, official metric published directly by the Federal Reserve following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The rules clearly define the target measure as the upper bound of the target range, provide an exact official website URL, specify a fallback deadline if the meeting statement is delayed, and include explicit rounding mechanics to resolve any fractional basis point edge cases.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 3.75% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, utilizing standard rounding to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if tied).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range is 3.75% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting statement is issued, or as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET if no statement is released. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with exact midpoints rounded away from zero. The market resolves to No if the resulting rounded upper bound is any other value. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·