Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves using official publications from the Federal Reserve, specifically the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves using official publications from the Federal Reserve, specifically the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The rules clearly define the timing of resolution, specify a definitive fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if no December statement is released, and explicitly outline rounding conventions if the target rate does not sit cleanly on standard quarter-point intervals. Discretion is minimal because resolution relies on an official, authoritative source publishing a clear quantitative figure.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 4.25% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution applies a specific rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero for midpoints.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting rounds to 4.25%. The market resolves to No if the upper bound rounds to any other value. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, and values falling exactly between options round away from zero. If no FOMC decision is issued for the December meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses the upper bound at that time. The primary resolution source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·