0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome relies directly on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
The rules clearly specify that the outcome relies directly on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Official statements from the Federal Reserve website serve as the primary source, eliminating decider discretion. Clear timing conditions allow resolution immediately following the FOMC meeting statement or as of December 31, 2026, if no statement is released. Explicit rounding rules are provided for any non-standard rate increments.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
The price rose from 0% to 13%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a clear catalyst for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 1.0% or lower following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with values rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly halfway).
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting is less than or equal to 1.0%. The upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution, rounding away from zero if it falls exactly between two options. The market resolves to No if the upper bound is strictly greater than 1.0% after rounding. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves according to the upper bound of the target range in place at that time. The primary resolution source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·