Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on official monetary policy releases directly from the Federal Reserve following the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on official monetary policy releases directly from the Federal Reserve following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The rules explicitly define the target metric as the upper bound of the target range, provide clear rounding and tie-breaking specifications to 25 basis points, and establish a clear fallback timestamp of December 31, 2026, if no meeting decision is published.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 1.5% after the FOMC December 2026 meeting. Resolution includes a rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero in exact ties).
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting (or as of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no December meeting decision is issued) is 1.5% after rounding to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if tied). It resolves No if the rounded upper bound is any other value. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·