Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the first day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the first day of trading. The primary exchange's official listing page serves as the designated authoritative source, with standard fallback provisions if figures are unavailable. Clear guidance is provided for potential trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions, a definitive deadline of December 31, 2027 is set for an IPO to occur, and boundary edge cases are addressed with an explicit rule resolving exact ties to the higher bracket.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be between $100 billion and $200 billion USD, inclusive, at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day, provided the IPO occurs by the end of 2027. The market has a unique resolution for the scenario where no IPO takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $100 billion and $200 billion USD, inclusive, at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the market capitalization is exactly $200 billion, it resolves Yes. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is less than $100 billion or greater than $200 billion USD at the closing price on its first day of trading. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if Anthropic does not have an IPO by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the market capitalization figure is not displayed there, another reliable source will be used. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for an abbreviated session, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the next trading day, which is then considered the first day of trading for this market.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·