Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define market capitalization as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading, with the primary exchange's official listing page designated as the main authority.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define market capitalization as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading, with the primary exchange's official listing page designated as the main authority. Clear fallback mechanics are established for market interruptions or abbreviated sessions, and an explicit deadline of December 31, 2027, handles the possibility that no public listing takes place.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance▼ −0.6 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be $600 billion or greater at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day. The market has a specific resolution for the scenario where no IPO occurs by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is $600 billion or greater at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves No IPO by December 31, 2027 if Anthropic does not have an IPO by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the figure is not displayed there, another reliable source will be used. If trading is interrupted on the first day, resolution uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such price is published, the next trading day with an official closing price will be considered the first day of trading.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·