Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026, explicitly disregarding official titles, constitutional roles, or foreign recognition.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026, explicitly disregarding official titles, constitutional roles, or foreign recognition. Because resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal appointment, the decider must interpret qualitative indicators such as military and administrative control. In the event of an opaque succession, internal power struggle, or fragmented leadership, determining who wields true de facto control involves significant subjective judgment.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Muhammad Mirbaqiri de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026, relying on demonstrable governing control rather than formal titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Muhammad Mirbaqiri de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET by exercising primary governing authority, including control over armed forces, state institutions, and executive decision-making. Formal appointments or international recognition are not required, while symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·