Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market defines the head of state not by formal constitutional appointment or legal title, but by de facto control and primary governing authority over Iranian institutions and armed forces as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market defines the head of state not by formal constitutional appointment or legal title, but by de facto control and primary governing authority over Iranian institutions and armed forces as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution explicitly disregards formal designation and international recognition, resolving an ambiguous succession crisis or fragmented leadership scenario relies entirely on evaluating qualitative indicators like military control and administrative authority. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official roster or government decree, giving the resolving entity substantial leeway to judge which claimant wielded primary practical power if governance is disputed or divided.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sadegh Larijani de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on actual domestic governing authority rather than formal titles or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sadegh Larijani de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state—including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making—on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Formal appointment or international recognition is not required, while symbolic status or nomination without effective control does not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time (resolving to "No Head of State"). A consensus of credible reporting decides.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·