Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on evaluating de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official appointments.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on evaluating de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official appointments. Resolution depends on an uncodified consensus of credible reporting to judge who exercises effective control over Iran's security forces, executive ministries, and capital on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because formal appointment or international recognition is explicitly not required, any political transition, power struggle, or ambiguity over who holds real executive authority creates room for subjective interpretation by the resolving party.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hassan Khomeini will de facto hold and exercise the powers of head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is based on effective governing control rather than formal titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hassan Khomeini de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. It resolves to No if another individual holds this authority, or to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control at that time. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and unexercised nominations do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·