Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define the winning condition as the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 election cycle who accepts the nomination.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define the winning condition as the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 election cycle who accepts the nomination. The outcome is tied to official party documentation, specifically including democrats.org, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation. A specific clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Walz will be the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tim Walz is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the Democratic Party website.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including Democrats.org
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·